There is not much recent Championship history between Dublin and Mayo.
The last time they met was at this stage in 1985 when Dublin won after a replay.
All I can remember clearly is that Padraig Brogan scored a brilliant goal and
that there was lots of controversy when Mayo defender John Finn had his jaw broken
by one of the Dublin forwards. It was one of those occasions when Micheál O Hehir
would announce in bewildered tones: "I can't for the life of me understand what
all the booing is about." Which meant that someone was after been "done" off the
ball. Previous to 1985, Dublin and Mayo had met on another four occasions;
in the 1921 final, and in the semi-finals of 1904, 1923 and 1955. Dublin have
won all six apart from the drawn first match in 1985. Curiously, Dublin have met
Kerry in all of the four finals they have contested after beating Mayo in a semi-final,
but ominously have only won one of those; in 1923. The lesson clearly is, if Dublin
do win on Sunday, that they send a nice letter to the Kerry County Board saying
that due to previous commitments they will not be fulfilling the fixture on September
17. And wishing them the best of luck for the future. Times were bad in
1985 and I was forced to resort for a time to selling calendars and various bric-a-brac
for a shady Charity which as it happened was partly run by a Mayo man. One of
his heroes was Willie Joe Padden, the man who never felt adequately togged out
unless he sported a bloodied bandage about his head or had one of his ears hanging
off. His other hero was Mike Baldwin from Coronation Street. Presumably on the
basis that they were both self-made men. Anyway he and me got on famously
for the whole Summer as we discussed our respective county's progress through
Leinster and Connacht. Conversations would often end with his declaring: "You
know, that Willie Joe is some footballer." He was an emotional chap. Unfortunately
he had also chosen to share some of the remainder of his emotional life with me
as he was in amorous pursuit of a Traffic Warden. A female Traffic Warden I hasten
to add, and also from the county of Michael Davitt. I became something of
a precocious confidant and mentor as he plotted to inveigle the unsuspecting woman
into his bed. Or at the very least agree to have a drink with him in Sloopys.
He knew lots about her. In a disturbing sort of way which suggested he was engaged
in what would now be known as "stalking". Indeed so much about her did I come
to learn that I was tempted, like Bart Simpson with Edna Krabappel, to employ
it on my own behalf. That was, until he excitedly pointed her out to me
as we were on our way to grifting some other poor eijits on behalf of children
who needed vital organ transplants. There she was in her fetching brown and yellow
uniform dispensing parking tickets. He elbowed me. "Well. What d'ye think. Would
you give her one?" He was a classy guy. I said I probably would although if it
had been a choice between the Traffic Warden and Willie Joe Padden I reckon I
might have gone for the man from Belmullet. He might not have been as rough with
me. What this has to do with football is that our friendship did not survive
the replay. Nor did my employment on behalf of the Charity. A few days after the
match we were driving somewhere when he mentioned John Finn. "That was a horror
what that bastard did to that poor man." It was the first words he had spoken
since I had gotten into the car. I said something to the effect that sure it didn't
happen for no reason. And that was the end of it. Or so I thought until I went
in to collect my share of the fraudulently acquired funds on Friday and was told
I wasn't reaching my "sales target". I have never looked back. A song from
around that time contained the words "Will Galway beat Mayo? Not if Mayo have
Willie Joe. Then Galway won't beat Mayo." Well Mayo might not have Billy Joe the
son either if his taking off last week is any indication. The Mayo forwards are
their weak point. While their backs only conceded five points from play to Laois,
their original attack including Billy Joe Padden only posted one more than that.
The crucial battles therefore, assuming an even break of the ball at midfield,
will be between the respective half backs and half forwards. I make the previous
assumption because if McGarrity and Harte cannot at least break even in their
battle with Ryan and Whelan, Mayo haven't a chance. Another ominous sign
for Mayo is that they appeared last Sunday to lack the type of physical intensity
that Dublin have distilled over the past year. There were Mayo forwards who did
not chase back and there were Mayo players who looked dead on their feet in the
last ten minutes. In fairness to them they stuck with it and prevailed although
it is interesting that one of the criticisms made of Mickey Moran in Derry was
that he had not sought to emulate the fitness levels attained by Derry's Ulster
rivals. The Mayo credo is "pure football". The model is apparently Brazil. Dublin,
perhaps, would prefer being compared to Germany. As I write, those tricky
men the Turf Accountants have chalked up their boards. Dublin are 2/5 favourites.
The qualifiers give a pretty sound basis for comparing the teams and on that you
would say that Mayo are maybe 2/3 points the better team than Westmeath given
the respective county's wins over Galway, and Mayo have now beaten Laois by 3
points. Dublin beat Laois by 14 points and Westmeath by 10. If football matches
were scientifically predictable we would be forecasting a Dublin victory of between
8 and 11 points. But we know better! To date Mayo have played five games;
beating London, Leitrim and Galway in Connacht before their two games against
Laois. In total they have scored 2 - 69 and conceded 2 - 51. An average of 15
to 11.4. That compares to Dublin's totals of 6 - 56 to 0 - 39 over four matches.
An average of 18.5 to 9.75. That would appear to give Dublin the edge both in
attack and defence and against similar quality of opposition. It is hard to imagine
that Dublin would not have beaten any of the teams that Mayo faced by bigger margins.
Indeed their respective performances against Laois confirm that. Nor have
Mayo been impressive in any of those matches. With a bit of luck and self-belief
Leitrim would have beaten them in Carrick-onShannon. The Connacht final was a
pretty dire affair in which there was some appalling shooting and Michael Donnellan
missed a kickable free in injury time to level. The highlight of the match from
a Mayo perspective was that they showed they were capable of winning a pretty
dour tussle and the performance of Ronan McGarrity in midfield. He and Pat Harte
will need to be at their very best if they are to get the better of Ciaran Whelan
and Shane Ryan. Interestingly, Whelan was forced to retire after 8 minutes
in the league game against Mayo in March. Despite this, Dublin dominated that
sector of the pitch although neither McGarrity nor Harte were on the team. In
fact only seven of the team that started that match for Mayo were on the team
that beat Laois last week, and the only line of the team that remains intact is
the half forwards, and they have switched positions. It is Mayo's weakest line
and was held to just two points from play, both scored by Alan Dillon, by a Dublin
half-back line that now only contains Coman Goggins. Apart from Goggins,
ten other players from the league side are almost certain to start on Sunday although
only David Henry, Barry Cahill and Ciaran Whelan are likely to be in the same
positions they occupied under the Parnell Park floodlights. What if anything that
really tells us about how Sunday is likely to go is debatable. On all known form,
and on statistical or individual comparisons, Dublin look like they are the stronger
team and therefore should advance, and maybe with a little bit left in the tank. However,
football is not a branch of mathematics. If it was there would be no bookmakers.
It is predictable to a certain degree - for example if Dublin or Mayo were playing
Wicklow, or even Roscommon, the result would be in little doubt. They are not.
Both teams are experienced at this level and indeed Mayo have more, albeit mostly
unfortunate, knowledge of the dizzying heights. Dublin are hungry. Mayo's hunger
has been called into question. The hungrier team will win but only if that team
is also the better team on the day. We think that will be Dublin. Let us pray
that we are correct and that they do not stand up the Kingdom on their date with
Destiny. | 
