As the expectations surrounding Dublin's prospects of winning the All
Ireland reach a crescendo unequalled since the mid 1990s, they must first confront
an old ghost. Indeed they will have to confront several more such spectres if
they do advance. For the moment, however, minds will be focused on laying the
ghost of June 6, 2004 when Westmeath recorded only their second ever Leinster
championship victory over Dublin. The previous occasion having been in 1931. That
day marked the nadir of Dublin's fortunes since the turn of the Millennium and
the end of the road for Tommy Lyons whose reign had begun with such a blaze in
2002. As he and the team left the pitch after the defeat by Westmeath they were
subjected to a disgusting tirade of abuse from a small number of Dublin supporters
in the Hogan Stand. An ignominious conclusion to what had promised to be new era
of glory. Before a crowd of over 60,000 Dublin began well and raced into
an early lead that might have been wider had it not been for a certain wastefulness.
Throughout the game they also paid a heavy price for the absence of a reliable
free-taker. Senan Connell was given the main responsibility and managed to convert
two of those chances. Sherlock and Brogan were on fire from the start but
the other forwards mainly failed to perform. In large part that was due to the
close marking and determination of the Westmeath half back line of Derek Heavin,
Damian Healy and Donal O'Donoghue who confined Keaney, Cullen and Moran to just
two points. All three are still on the Westmeath team although only O'Donoghue
remains in the half back line. Much of the talk prior to the match had been
about both the threat posed by Dessie Dolan and Westmeath's possible over-dependency
on him for scores. As it turned out, Dolan was hugely influential and cleaned
out his immediate marker Barry Cahill, but he 'only' scored three points on a
day when nine Westmeath players got their name on the scoreboard, including all
six starting forwards. Dublin led at half time by 0 -9 to 0 - 6 and had
chances to win the match even late on before Westmeath drew level and then added
the two decisive points in injury time to win by 0 - 14 to 0 - 12. Long before
that, however, Dublin had appeared to have lost the psychological battle on the
field as Westmeath seemed to defend with more tenacity and to win most disputed
possession. Dublin looked demoralised and bedraggled and were forced into making
substitutions that had little if any positive effect, especially after the departure
of Darren Homan who was one of the few who seemed to have the belly for the fight. Indeed
that was one of the things you heard time and time again afterwards in the pubs.
Most Dubs don't mind being beat. God knows we are well used to it and in the worst
circumstances. Defeats that would leave you wondering afterwards, how the fuck
did they lose that. You shrugged your shoulders, had a pint and moved on. Seldom
if ever, though, was it said that a Dublin team had lost because they did not
have the heart for it. There had been whispers that this had been the case after
the quarter final defeat by Armagh in 2003, and now it was openly declaimed. Dublin
had no 'bottle'. Who can say about these things with certainty? Especially
if you are not the one in the situation. Not the person whose heart seems to be
trying to jump out your throat and who has to make countless decisive decisions
in the heat of the battle. Best leave talk of 'bottle' and 'losers' to those whose
notion of participatory sport is changing from Sky Sports One to Setanta with
the remote control. It is basically the same bunch of players who will don
the blue jersey on Saturday who were the most useless shower of bastards ever
to lace a pair of boots two years ago. Of the likely starting 15, only eight started
that game but most of the others were on the panel. So something has changed.
Or so we hope at least! As for Westmeath. Nine of the team that defeated
Galway in the qualifiers started in 2004 and O'Donoghue came on as a sub. There
are also rumours that Tomas O Flatherta has been attempting to entice back Paul
Conway who scored the winning point against Dublin that day. So the two
teams are not that different. The received wisdom is that Dublin have vastly improved,
and that Westmeath are only a shadow of the team they were when they won Leinster
in 2004. Evidence of that is adduced from their poor performance against Offaly,
in the absence of Dessie Dolan, and their sheer luck in having overcome Sligo
after extra time and the mistaken sending off of Sligo's Eamonn O'Hara. Lucky
perhaps, but they are still there when no-one gave them a hope little more than
a month ago. Against Galway they proved that they are still doughty fighters.
Particularly impressive was the manner in which they played against the strong
sea breeze in the second half when they were defending a narrow lead. Although
they had extended their half time advantage early in the second half they were
only to score once again for the remaining 30 minutes. Crucially, however, that
was a goal from Gary Dolan. In defence the Westmeath backs stuck close to
the Galway forwards, with Meehan in particular being the object of close attention,
but at many stages 12 or 13 of their players were behind the ball. It will be
interesting to see if they attempt to employ the same tactic against Dublin although
it may not be as effective on a faster surface and in the larger spaces of Croke
Park. Apart from that, the Dublin forwards have proven themselves to be more than
capable of coping with close marking defenders. The real question concerns
how the Dublin backs will cope with Dessie Dolan, and the wider threat that Westmeath
present going forward. They have been far from prolific so far but should they
hit another day like 2004 they will be a handful. The Dublin full backs
were the subject of a good deal of criticism following the Laois and Offaly matches.
This was mainly based on the fact that the opposing teams started well and appeared
to have easily penetrated the Dublin defence. In reality the way the modern game
is played every team, no matter how poor, is going to have at least one period
of dominance given any reasonable level of fitness. When that happens the pressure
will be on the backs. The important thing from a Dublin perspective is that they
stood up to that pressure and over the course of the three games they have played
have perhaps allowed the opposition four reasonable chances to score a goal. None
were taken and that is an impressive record unmatched by any other team that is
left in the competition except Cork. In their three matches to date Dublin
have notched up 5 - 44 to 0 - 34. In their five games, Westmeath have managed
2 - 64 to 1 - 56. That averages out at a strike rate for Dublin of 19.66 to 11.33,
and for Westmeath of 16.4 to 11.8. Dublin are marginally ahead on that comparison
but not by much and the Westmeath defensive record is impressive, especially the
fact that over five games they have only conceded one goal. The statistics
would point to a close marking encounter in which the ability of the respective
forwards to take their chances will be crucial. Much of that of course will depend
on the quantity, and above all the quality, of the ball being received and the
vital factor in determining this will be who comes out best at midfield. While
Dublin clearly won the midfield battle against Offaly and Laois, although not
as decisively as it would appear in retrospect, they were put to the pin of their
collar against Longford. Significantly, midfield would be regarded as one of Westmeath's
weaker zones and against Galway Duffy and Bannon were coming out a clear second
best until David O'Shaughnessy was brought on in place of Duffy just before half
time. His presence reversed matters to a certain extent although Westmeath's tactic
of crowding Galway in the second half meant that there was little clean possession
won there by either team. As with Westmeath's general approach to the Galway
match, it is unlikely that such tactics will be able to be replicated in Croke
Park. Although they appear confident that players like Joe Fallon and Denis Glennon
will be fit to play against Dublin, you just get the impression that Westmeath
will have a number of players who may wilt under the sheer physical demands of
playing an All Ireland quarter-final at the pace that Dublin will impose. Dublin
have improved and it is as difficult to envisage them having as bad a day as June
6 2004 as it is to see Westmeath again attaining the heights they did that Summer.
They will mount a stout resistance and will not surrender easily. Dublin, this
year, have shown on many occasions that they no longer crumble when things are
not going as they would like. I have not seen them panic so far, and do not expect
to next Saturday. Arrogance and complacency are enemies but I cannot imagine
that either imposter has been allowed poke its nose inside the Dublin camp. It
is all very well for supporters to blow and bluster and make brave predictions.
The team must go out and beat whatever team is placed in front of it and face
whatever adversity arises on the day. And you can be sure that there will be moments
of crisis in this match as there have been in others, and as there will be later
on. The pressure will only increase but these boys should be able to cope. The
next six weeks will severely test Dublin and there will be occasions when they
may falter and break. However, we suspect that Saturday 12 will not be the day. | 
